CHINA READER DAILY WIRE

In Brief
INTERNAL
Chinese population to fall by 20 million in 2035, says EIU
On 07 February, the South China Morning Post reported on The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) findings, it is expected that the Chinese population will dip by 20 million to 1.39 billion by 2035, leading to dampening of long-term economic prospects and creating implications for delayed retirement and accelerated automation rate. The report stated the declining population is due to fewer women of childbearing age, delays in people getting married, and the declining trend of having children. Another reason is the higher economic costs resulting in fewer children. The report also estimates that the government will postpone the retirement ages. China’s retirement ages are among the lowest in the world, with 60 for men, 55 for female office workers, and 50 for female blue-collar workers. The report also predicted that the future population reallocation will mainly be driven more by migration between urban areas rather than from rural to urban areas, thereby reducing the slowdown in the urbanisation rate. (Luna Sun, “China population: with 20 million fewer people projected by 2035, will the retirement age have to be raised?” South China Morning Post, 07 February 2024)

China issues visa-free travel to boost foreign visitors
On 06 February, according to a commentary in the South China Morning Post titled “China visa-free travel: relaxing entry restrictions adds up, with ‘additional stimulus’ eyed from more inbound trips,” by Ralph Jennings, where on 01 December, began to allow foreign citizens of five European nations and Malaysia visa-free entry for up to 15 days. Foreign investors say they will spend more on service to China if the regulatory application processes are relaxed. As the Chinese economy struggles, it is working to attract foreign investors and tourists. According to Douglas Barry, visa-free travel will benefit hotels, restaurants, and retail businesses and transport the most from an increase in visitors. (Ralph Jennings, “China visa-free travel: relaxing entry restrictions adds up, with ‘additional stimulus’ eyed from more inbound trips,” South China Morning Post, 06 February 2024)

90 year old dinosaur fossil discovered in Jiangxi, China
On 30 January, the Jiangxi Geological Museum announced the discovery of Gandititan cavocaudatus, found at a construction site in the Ganxian district in Ganzhou, East China’s Jiangxi province, in June 2021. The fossils date to 90 million years old. On 17 January, the discovery was published in the latest edition of the Journal of Systematic Palaeontology for studying the species’ evolution and geographic distribution during the Cretaceous period. The study's findings show the possibility of groups of titanosaurs in Eastern Asia and their movements between Asia and South America during the mid-Cretaceous period. (Wallace Woon, “90-million-year-old fossils found in China belong to a new dinosaur,” The Straits Times, 06 February 2024)

ECONOMY
China’s offshore green bond dipped to a record low in 2023
On 06 February, according to a report by Sustainable Fitch, China’s offshore green bond market dipped to a record low of 36 per cent in the year 2023 to USD 10 billion, a 21 per cent decline compared to 2022, amid rising US interest rates and an absence of Chinese property developers. According to the report, the lack of Chinese property developers from the bond market contributed to the decline in offshore green bond issuance as they had issued only 4 per cent of the bonds in 2023 compared to 40 per cent of bonds issued in 2021. Jingwei Jia, associate director of Sustainable Fitch, said “Banks, local government financing vehicles and energy corporates are now the dominant issuers that remain active in the offshore green bond market,”. He further said that heavy curbs imposed by the central government on the industry led to less participation of developers in the bond market. (Martin Choi, “China’s offshore green bond market slumped 36% to record low in 2023 on rate hikes, lack of property issuers: Sustainable Fitch,” South China Morning Post, 06 February 2024)

Chinese stocks rebound with intensive government efforts
On 06 February, Chinese equities onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index rose by 2.8 per cent despite the market fallout in the previous two sessions. Major Chinese companies listed under the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index jumped more than 4 per cent. The sudden rise is part of the government's efforts to boost stock purchases. The regulators also promised to increase long-term funding for the market. Policymakers, despite expressing support for the market, have lacked concrete measures to address the crisis. China is also tightening trading restrictions on domestic institutional investors and offshore units to arrest the market fluctuations that have dropped to low levels. (“China Stocks Rebound as Beijing Intensifies Efforts to Stem Rout,” Bloomberg, 06 February 2024)

Foreign investors face challenges from Evergrande's liquidation
On 06 February, according to a commentary in the Nikkei Asia titled “Evergrande's liquidation will not pay off for foreign investors,” by Benjamin Fanger, with the ongoing liquidation of Evergrande Group, Beijing faces a key challenge to respect the rights of foreign investors. According to Benjamin, Chinese banks directly claim Evergrande’s assets as collateral on domestic loans. Meanwhile, the overseas creditors are among the lowest among all stakeholders to receive a share of the group’s assets. Foreign investors listed under the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have invested in the Chinese property sector for decades. Legally, foreign creditors are last in the queue for repayment priority. (Benjamin Fanger, “Evergrande's liquidation will not pay off for foreign investors,” Nikkei Asia, 06 February 2024)

Country Garden to receive government grants for its unfinished projects
On 05 February, according to Country Garden, more than 30 projects in cities including Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, etc., “have entered the white list”. This is a part of the government's efforts to revive the country’s real estate market. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the National Financial Regulatory Administration said 170 cities in 26 provinces have established a white-list lending mechanism. According to Morgan Stanley, the first batch of white list projects include the defaulted private developers such as Country Garden, Sunac China Holdings, Shimao Group Holdings, and China Aoyuan Group. Experts say that despite policy announcements, the effectiveness will be based on banks' implementation, which is averse to issuing more loans to the developers. (Kenji Kawase, “China aid program could help more than 30 Country Garden projects,” Nikkei Asia, 05 February 2024)

Ex-IMF official sceptical of China’s overtaking of the US economy
On 05 February, according to an interview by Eswar Prasad, professor at Cornell University and ex-IMF official, China’s prospects of overtaking the US economy were declining. He further said that the potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House will lead to increased global protectionism with the escalation of geopolitical issues and renewed American isolationism, offering Beijing a chance to enhance its global influence. He mentions the strong resilience of the US economy compared to other countries but is concerned about the impact of the global economic slowdown and the increasing U.S. public debt. He further predicts the uncertainty in the Chinese economy due to the undesirable demographics (low birthrate and an ageing population), a collapsing real estate market, deteriorating investor sentiment at home and abroad, and the lack of clarity over a new growth model. (Yuta Saito, “China economy overtaking U.S. is increasingly unlikely: ex-IMF official,” Nikkei Asia, 05 February 2024)

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Chinese defence equipments on display at expo in Riyadh
On 06 January, China displayed its defence equipment in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A Chinese defence delegation and the Bayi Aerobatic Team of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force are participating in the World Defense Show 2024 in Riyadh from 04 to 08 February. China Central Television (CCTV) reported that out of 770 exhibitors from 75 countries, Chinese exhibitors were the largest after the host country. They displayed equipment like the FC-31 stealth fighter jet, the JH-7 fighter bomber, the Y-20 strategic transport aircraft, drones like the Wing Loong series, the CH series, and the FH series, plus vessels, tanks and armoured vehicles, howitzers, and multiple launch rocket systems, radars, as well as air defence guns and missiles. According to the CCTV, China can assist Saudi Arabia to achieve a 50 per cent localization goal in military procurement by 2030. Chinese experts argued that Chinese defence products are not affordable and quality with advanced technologies. (Liu Xuanzun, “Top Chinese defense products displayed in Saudi Arabia; 'technology transfers enable localized manufacturing',” Global Times, 06 February 2024)

CHINA & TAIWAN
China welcomes Taiwanese business delegation
On 07 February, Nikkei Asia reported that Song Tao, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office under the mainland Chinese government's State Council, met with a delegation from the Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers' Association (TEEMA) in Beijing. TEEMA members include companies in the semiconductor, electronics and telecommunications hardware sectors, all critical components of Taiwan's economy. According to the Taiwan Affairs Office, the mainland will provide a "broader stage" for Taiwanese businesspeople and enterprises to put down roots and expand. TEEMA Chairman Lee Tsu-chin said the Taiwanese business community "supports the peaceful and integrated development of cross-strait relations”. Chin has been vocal about its sovereignty claims on Taiwan and is alarmed by the growing closeness between the Taiwanese administration’s President Lai and the US. (Yukio Tajima, “China courts Taiwan civil and business groups in unification push,” Nikkei Asia, 07 February 2024)

CHINA & EAST ASIA
China expects South Korea to have positive and friendly bilateral ties
On 06 February, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said in a phone call to his South Korean counterpart to pursue a "positive, objective and friendly" policy towards Beijing. He said that both countries must work together for stability and smooth flow of supply chains. South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul asked China to play a "constructive role" in curbing North Korea's military threats and to help North Korean defectors not to be sent back home against their will. Wang has extended the invite for Cho to visit China for a bilateral meeting. Both sides discussed the situation on the Korean Peninsula. (“Beijing calls for 'positive, objective, friendly' China policy from South Korea,” Reuters, 06 February 2024)

Beijing should harden its stance in countering challenges in the South China Sea
On 06 February, Chinese expert Wu Shicun, chairman of the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, said in an article that patience and self-control from China would not be enough. He further said that the long-term peace and stability in the South China Sea cannot be achieved only by China’s unilateral restraint and forbearance. Wu’s analysis comes amid the tensions escalating between the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal and the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. To counter Beijing’s claims, Jonathan Malaya, a spokesman at the National Security Council of the Philippines, said that China’s claim had “no legal basis under international law”, and that “only the Philippines has the authority to exercise maritime law enforcement functions to the exclusion of other countries”. Wu added that China’s ties with Beijing became “more complicated and difficult” under the Marcos administration due to his pro-US policy and the dispute on the South China Sea with China. (Laura Zhou, “‘Show our swords’: Beijing must harden its stance against rival challenges in the South China Sea, expert says,” South China Morning Post, 06 February 2024)

CHINA & SOUTHEAST
Philippines to build a military base near Taiwan
On 06 February, according to Philippines Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr, the Philippines aims to boost the military presence and infrastructure in the country’s northern province of Batanes close to Taiwan. Teodoro called for increased military presence and the development of more structures in Batanes, which he describes as “the spearhead of the Philippines”. The comments made by Teodoro reflect the commitment of Southeast Asian countries to build their security capabilities amid a rise in tensions with China, with their vessels trying to expand their control in the South China Sea. Teodoro also seeks to increase the cooperation between the military and the local government to protect stakeholders such as fisherfolk and other maritime-related agencies for better safety. (“South China Sea: Philippines to put military base near Taiwan in high gear to tackle tensions with Beijing,” South China Morning Post, 07 February 2024)

Philippines Bishops calls for defending “What is ours” in the South China Sea
On 06 February, Filipino Catholic Bishops urged their President Ferdinand Marco to deter Chinese aggression. The six bishops condemned the Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea and demanded that the government to “defend what is ours.” These bishops have served in the regions near the South China Sea and while the protection is vital for the resources preset but also the livelihood of Philippines fishermen is at stake. They stood against the policy of appeasing the Chinese and said: “A policy of appeasing the Chinese aggressors is worsening the situation of our poor fisherfolk.” The statement included the signatures of Lingayen-Dagupan Archbishop Socrates Villegas and former bishops of the Catholic churches, stating that they stand with the Philippines fisherfolks and aim to be the voice of their fears and concerns. (“South China Sea: Filipino bishops urge Manila to ‘defend what is ours’ amid Beijing’s ‘aggression’,” South China Morning Post, 06 February 2024 )

CHINA & SOUTH ASIA
Morgan Stanley foresees a market shift towards India away from China
On 06 February, the South China Morning Post reported on the growing preference of India over China as the market shifts over the growing economic, political and policy constraints. It stated that much of the cash flow is going towards India and that it is prompting a gold rush. Marshall Wace's USD 62 billion hedge fund has betted on India after the US. Zurich-based Vontobel Holding AG called India the top emerging market holding and that even Japan a conservative investor is opening up to India. In mid-January, India was able to briefly overtake Hong Kong and became the fourth-largest equity market. Morgan Stanley believes that by 2030 India’s stock market will be the third largest in the world. (“Wall Street snubs China for India in a historic markets shift,” South China Morning Post, 06 February 2024)

CHINA & MIDDLE EAST
China signs MoU with Afghanistan on oil production
On 06 February, according to an editorial in VOA titled “Afghan Oil Production Jumps With $49 Million Chinese Investment,” by Akmal Dawi, China’s Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co, or CAPEIC, signed an agreement for oil extraction with Taliban authorities in Afghanistan. CAPEIC is required to invest USD 150 million by the first year and extend it to USD 540 million by 2026. However, the funding has been around USD 49 million, which is one-third of the funding promised by China, due to the inaccurate estimates of material and labour costs and a three-month delay in the approval of its financial plan by Afghan authorities. So far, the investment has helped to boost the country’s oil output to more than 1,100 metric tons. Experts say that China’s primary motivation is not economic but to curb the potential security threats from foreign terrorist groups threatening its porous borders. (Akmal Dawi, “Afghan Oil Production Jumps With $49 Million Chinese Investment,” VOA, 06 February 2024)

CHINA & EUROPE
Russia and China condemn the US strike on Iraq and Syria
On 05 February, Russia and China representatives in the United National Security Council condemned the US strike and target on Iraq and Syria. They accused the US of raising the risk of regional escalation and the Russian representative believes the hike in strikes is owed to the upcoming presidential elections. Russia now facing stringent sanctions after the Ukraine war called for a council meeting against the US strike in Iraq and Syria. Russia envoy Koussay Aldahhak “The US purports that it does not seek to create conflicts in the Middle East or anywhere else, but in reality, it does precisely the opposite.” The Iran ambassador Saeid Iravani expressed that the attacks are aimed to distract from the root problem, Isarel. He said: “It is evident to everyone that the root causes in the region are occupation, aggression and continued genocide and horrific atrocities committed by the Israeli regime, and fully supported by the US, against innocent Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.” (“Russia and China slam US for Middle East strikes,” Aljazeera, 06 February 2024)

BASF demanded to withdraw from Xinjiang province over human rights abuse
On 05 February, German media outlet Der Spiegel and ZDF letter demanded the BASF a German chemical producer to withdraw from the Chinese province of Xinjiang in light of the human rights abuses. The BASF is affiliated with the Xinjiang Markor Chemical Industry, in Xinjiang where they employed Uyghur Muslims in the region. The households of these workers went through home visits used to indoctrinate and spy on them. These visits were part of the ‘fanghuiju campaign’ where they collected information on their daily lives and their political inclinations. The letter outlined their displeasure and shock over the company’s affiliation and the role it plays in the implication of abuses against the Uyghur Muslims. To this, the BASF spokesperson said: “We currently have no reason to believe that employees from our joint ventures were involved in the measures described. Irrespective of this, we take the current reports very seriously, will continue to investigate them and will take them into account in our assessment of business relationships.” (Amy Hawkins, “German firm BASF urged to quit Xinjiang over ‘gross abuses’ of Uyghurs,” The Guardian, 06 February 2024)

Bilateral cooperation on global challenges, Chinese and Norwegian Foreign Ministers
On 05 February, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with the Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide to discuss the bilateral cooperation between the two countries. The discussion focused on the Middle East crisis and China’s growing interest in the smaller European countries and its hope of furthering ties. Wang stated that Eide is the first European Foreign Minister to visit China in 2024 and this showcases the importance Norway gives to their bilateral relations. Eide supported the idea of free trade initiatives in line with the rule of the World Trade Organization and hopes to work with Beijing to tackle climate change and other international challenges. (Fan Anqi, “Wang, Eide hold talks as Europe's China policy faces uncertainties,” Global Times, 06 February 2024)

Dutch Defence Ministry accused China of cyber-attack
On 06 February, Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren accused China of a state-backed cyber malware attack on the Dutch military network. They called the attack part of the Chinese political spy efforts against the Netherlands. The Chinese embassy in the Netherlands refuted the “groundless accusations.” Kajsa said: “It is important to ensure that espionage activities of this nature committed by China become public knowledge since this will help to increase international resilience to this type of cyber espionage.” The hackers have been said to have placed malicious malware inside the military network used by 50 personnel for unclassified research. The Chinese embassy expressed that: “We will not allow any country or individual using Chinese infrastructure to engage in such illegal activities.” (“The Chinese embassy in Netherlands rejects ‘groundless’ Dutch hacking claims,” South China Morning Post, 07 February 2024)

CHINA & THE AMERICAS
US-China to discuss trade and economic issues
On 06 February, the Economic Working Group of the U.S. and China met for two days between 05 and 06 February to discuss trade concerns and broader economic issues. According to the US Treasury statement, the U.S. and Chinese officials discussed "views on domestic macroeconomic outlooks," as well as other shared concerns such as debt in low-income and emerging economies. The US side discussed China’s industrial overcapacity and how it affects workers and companies in the United States. According to the Chinese state media, Chinese Ministry of Finance officials expressed their concerns, primarily regarding increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. and "two-way investment restrictions and sanctions targeting Chinese companies. (“US, China Officials Meet to Discuss Economy, Trade, Production,” VOA, 06 February 2024)

EAST ASIA & THE PACIFIC READER

EAST ASIA
“North Korean residents’ housing, medical and educational environments are still underdeveloped,” says Seoul
On 06 February, The Straits Times reported on the conditions of North Korea in Pyongyang. The defectors now living in South Korea informed that they never received any government rations from the state and they survived on the informal market.  The report was published by the Seoul Unification Ministry, which included a 280-page report on the dire condition and the social situation of the citizens of North Korea. The report interviewed 6,300 defectors between 2022-2023. North Korea is facing a dire food shortage and the situation is exacerbated by the continued sanctions imposed and the dip in border trade during Covid-19. The report also said that there is a growing influence and information about the outside world, where most defectors have watched foreign content and videos. (“North Korea defectors cite dwindling food rations, market reliance: Study,” The Straits Times, 06 February 2024)

Japan proposes to expand its offshore wind farms to its EEZ
On 06 February, Nikkie Asia reported on Japan’s plans to allow the development of offshore wind farms that are stationed beyond its territorial waters and are part of their larger exclusive economic zone. The approval process of this proposal is said to be lengthy as companies would require consent from the local actors and fisherman and fisheries operations. The proposal approved would provide Japan with 10 times more of the area for wind projects. The Japan Wind Power Association reckons that the wind capacity will rise to 3.5 times if the expansion is allowed. The measure is also proposed on the green ging strategy of Japan aiming to decarbonize. (“Japan eyes expanding offshore wind beyond territorial waters to EEZ,” Nikkie Aisa, 06 February 2024)

South Korean company Booyoung gives USS 101k per childbirth
On 05 February, The Straits Times reported on the recent childbirth incentive of USD 101,000 proposed by a South Korean company Booyoung Group. The effort came as part of the growing low birth rate and believes that the economic support would incentivise young couples. In the year 2021, it reportedly paid seven billion won for 70 childbirths in the company. The company’s spokesperson Lee said: “The low birth rate results from financial burdens and difficulties in balancing work and family life, so we decided to take such a drastic measure.” (“Get $101k for every child born? Yes, say employees to South Korean firm’s offer,” The Straits Times, 05 February 2024)

SOUTHEAST ASIA
Peace talks in the southernmost province of Thailand
On 06 February, Thailand’s Chief peace negotiator Chatchai Bangchuad was able to hold peace talks in the conflict-led region of the southernmost province. The conflict started in 2004 when the militant groups sought autonomy from the state. The Deep South Watch reported that 7,300 people were killed and 13,500 wounded in the 20 years of civil unrest and clash. The meeting was held in Kuala Lumpur where the Thai government representative and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional discussed the situation. Bangchuad said: “Both sides are taking it seriously, trying to solve problems jointly.” (“Peace talks on Thai south unrest restart in Kuala Lumpur,” The Straits Times, 06 February 2024)

Philippines stalled thousands of malware attacks, says DICT
On 06 February, the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) reported that the Philippines stalled thousands of “sophisticated” cyber-attacks that targeted government websites. The DICT found that attackers used multiple addresses within China and it needs the Chinese government's help to locate the perpetrators. The hackers tried to embed the virus on the personal website of Marcos and the website of the Philippines Coast Guards. The Chinese embassy present in the Philippines stated that China was not involved in any of the attacks and that: it “opposes and cracks down on all forms of cyber-attack and other illegal activities on Chinese soil or using Chinese infrastructure.” (“ Philippines thwarts cyber-attacks on Marcos, government agencies,” The Straits Times, 06 February 2024)

Thailand to ban the recreational use of Cannabis
On 06 February,  Thailand’s Public Health Minister Cholan Srikaew outlined the new bill criminalizing the use of recreational Cannabis. The drugs were decriminalized in Thailand in 2022 and were removed from the banned narcotics group under the Bhumjaithai Party. The removal of ban led to the mushrooming of several cannabis dispensaries in Thailand. There were increased concerns regarding the open use of cannabis and the call for tighter regulations increased. Cholan said: “The new Bill will be amended from the existing one to only allow the use of cannabis for health and medicinal purposes,” and that “The use for fun is considered wrong.” (“Thai government plans to ban recreational cannabis use,” The Straits Times, 06 February 2024)

Thailand to lead humanitarian aid for Myanmar
On 06 February, The Straits Times reported on the Thailand pioneered Myanmar peace and humanitarian initiative. Thailand hopes to establish a humanitarian safe zone on the shared border with Myanmar, the Mae Sot-Myawaddy crossing. This would be used to deliver food and medical supplies to displaced communities. The effort would include 10 member countries of ASEAN that would try to kickstart the peace process. Thailand’s Vice Foreign  Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said: “It’s about paving the way for Myanmar to once again re-engage, and engage constructively with the international community”(“Thailand confident aid effort will lead to Myanmar crisis dialogue,” The Straits Times, 06 February 2024)

Bangladeshi civilians killed as shell mortar fell from Myanmar
On 05 February, two people in Bangladesh died after the mortar shell remains fell on the Bangladesh side. Myanmar and Bangladesh share 270 kilometres of border where heavy cross fire are of regular occurrence. The unassuming victims were sitting in their house when the shell fell on their kitchen. The Bangladeshi Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan informed that the Junta entered the territory to protect themselves. The spokesperson for Border Guard Bangladesh estimated that 95 border officers may have crossed the territory seeking protection. (“Two killed in Bangladesh as fighting rages on Myanmar border: Police,” The Straits Times, 05 February 2024)

About the Authors
CEAP Team: Femy Francis and Akhil Ajith are Research Assistants at NIAS